Rumors on the next batch of referrals

OK, I know I have criticized the Rumor Queen site before for the rollercoaster ride that she puts us on every month. This site allows people to post rumors about what their agency is saying or what was said from a friend who has a friend who has a friend who said, etc..

As we get closer and closer to the referral of “Gertrude” I find myself going to this site more and more to see what the next cutoff date will be. When we had months to go, I really didn’t care what the rumors were. I knew it would be months and that was that. As we get closer, I need to know what's coming next. If the CCAA pulled a rabbit out of their hat, we could get our referral this month. Stop there... based on the last 11 months of data, this is not going to happen, but there's always that chance.

So, early last week, or maybe even the week before, there was a rumor that the CCAA would match into December. That would've meant that we would've gotten our referral this month. A bit of excitement brewed deep inside, but the rumor was too early for it to have any credibility and seemed too good to be true. Last week, a more reputable rumor surfaced (somewhat confirmed again this morning on the RQ site)... it appears that they will match 7 days this month (until November 21, 2005) which will leave us 8 days away from our referral.

What’s this all mean? Looking back thru the posts, on September 1, 2006, our paperwork completed the review by the CCAA. Our next step would be the match. The following is the amount of days matched each month since then.

Sep 2006 - 18 days
Oct 2006 - 16 days
Nov 2006 - 14 days
Jan 2007 - 19 days
Feb 2007 - 16 days
Mar 2007 - 11 days
Apr 2007 - 2 days
May 2007 - 6 days
Jun 2007 - 7 days
Jul 2007 - 7 days (estimate)

That means that if the 7 days is true for this month...

In the last 11 months, CCAA has matched 116 days which averages to about 10.5 days per month.
- if the CCAA keeps this average, we’d get our referral in September, travel in November.

In the last 6 months, CCAA has matched 68 days which averages to 11.3 days per month.
- if the CCAA keeps this average, we’d get our referral in September, travel in November.

In the last 3 months, CCAA has matched 20 days which averages to 6.7 days per month.
- if the CCAA keeps this average, we’d get our referral in October, travel in December.

If the CCAA has another month of 2 days like they did in April
- who knows when we’ll get our referral and when we’ll travel.